Chemnitzer Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Forschungsseminar

Biomasse spielt eine wesentliche Rolle bei der Ressourcen- und Energiewende in Deutschland. Die Biomassenutzung muss dabei eine Vielzahl von Zielsetzungen vereinen. Dazu gehören die Sicherung der Ernährung, die Gewährleistung der Energieversorgung, die Entwicklung innovativer Produkte und Märkte im Rahmen der Bioökonomie sowie der Klima- und Umweltschutz. Zusammen mit dem Umstand, dass die Potenziale der Biomasse begrenzt sind, ergeben sich unweigerlich Zielkonflikte und Grenzen der Biomassenutzung. Der Vortrag präsentiert Biomassepotenziale auf nationaler und regionaler Ebene und bietet einen Ausblick auf die zukünftige Biomassebasis. Darüber hinaus werden aktuelle Trends der Biomassenutzung und der Bioökonomie aufgezeigt sowie die Grenzen und Potenziale der skizzierten Entwicklungen erläutert.

The development of digital technologies in ecosystems became a key strategy for firms to achieve competitive advantages. However, despite the increasing importance of innovation ecosystems, only little is known about the spatial and multilevel structure of digital ecosystems. We analyze the impact of an organization’s multilayer and spatial innovation ecosystem on the success of digital technology development. We estimate a multilevel model based on three levels by using data on 411,389 patents including 57,627 digital-related patents from the German and European Patent Office, which are nested within 25,017 organizations in Germany and a specific ecosystem, for the period from 2010 to 2021. Our results show that the probability of developing a digitalization patent is higher for large firms than for SMEs. Furthermore, an ecosystem of universities and applied research organizations as well as technology subsidies increases patent success of large firms in this field because it reduces the higher uncertainty and ambiguity in digital technology development compared to more established technologies. SMEs, in contrast, play a minor role in the development of digital technology, but they rely more heavily on their ecosystem and subsidies. Our study provides recommendations for technology managers and policy makers to support the transformation towards digitalization.

This paper focuses on the uncertainty effect on consumer price inflation based on a panel of 82 advanced, emerging, and developing economies studied over a sample period running from 1995 to 2022. In contrast to the previous literature, we particularly control for the role of monetary policy credibility by considering the monetary control classification of Cobham (2021) and by measuring the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations. We argue that the interpretation of uncertainty as a negative demand shock is unlikely to reflect uncertainty dynamics for countries with high inflation and/or low monetary policy credibility. We find that higher uncertainty boosts inflation. However, this effect is significantly reduced (or even eliminated) by both a strong degree of monetary control and a strong anchoring of inflation expectations, illustrating that both factors are of key importance for the propagation of uncertainty shocks.

This paper presents a theoretical exploration into why and under what conditions politicians align with wealthy elite groups, often at the expense of broader public welfare, in the pursuit of electoral power. While supporting elite interests through political patronage can be costly, an alternative approach could involve favoring the broader public to gain more votes and reduce dependency on the elite. To investigate this dilemma, we construct a formal model of electoral competition wherein incumbents choose between self-reliant strategies or establishing a patronage system with a small, influential elite segment. In this model, elite support - comprising campaign contributions, biased media, and endorsements among others - is exchanged for a share of state resources, enhancing the incumbent’s chances of victory but reducing the resources available for the incumbent’s appropriation after the election. In the static model, two scenarios emerge based on the influence and demands of the elite. In cases of limited elite influence and modest expected payback, incumbents - regardless of their public support - avoid establishing a costly patronage system. However, when elite influence is high and expected payback is substantial, incumbents with low public support find it optimal to rely on elite support to boost their chances, while those with high support refrain, as the benefits of patronage do not justify its cost. The model is then extended to a dynamic game, where forward-looking incumbents, regardless of initial support levels, consistently opt for patronage as a strategy to secure prolonged tenure. In a further extension, where voters may be either informed (voting based on policy platforms) or uninformed (swayed by elite influence), the model predicts a higher likelihood of patronage when a significant share of voters is uninformed. The predictions of this model find empirical relevance in cases such as the regimes of Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin in Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, and Viktor Orbán in Hungary, where patronage systems have played a crucial role in maintaining political power.

This presentation highlights the importance of artificial intelligence in enhancing the taxation process. We will explore how AI optimizes tax management efficiency and accuracy through advanced methods and tools. Two examples using the Orange toolkit for data visualization, machine learning, and data mining will also be presented.

Central banking has significantly evolved, driven by changing economic, financial, and societal dynamics and new ideologies. Historically focused on price stability and inflation control, central banks shifted towards targeting specific inflation rates post-20th century. The 2008 global financial crisis further diverted their focus to financial stability, leading to the adoption of macroprudential tools and unconventional policies like quantitative easing. Integrating climate change considerations has recently become paramount, reflecting increased societal and environmental concerns. Using Hall’s theory, this paper explores these shifts towards green central banking, emphasizing the growing importance of environmental sustainability in central banking policies. Understanding these paradigmatic changes is crucial for future economic and environmental planning, offering vital insights for economists, policymakers, and global economic stakeholders.

As countries and firms increasingly seek ways to strengthen the resilience of their supply chains, this paper studies the global economic costs of a decoupling of global supply chains along geopolitical lines. We explore not only the long-run effects, but also the short-run costs stemming from rigid wages and low substitutability across factors of production and input goods. We find that, in terms of welfare losses, the costs of decoupling are largely higher when accounting for rigidities, while country losses are heterogeneous. A reshaping of global supply chains increases the level of consumer prices in most countries, as well as producer prices, especially for trade-intensive manufacturing sectors. Global supply chain decoupling entails also a reallocation of labour across skill levels. Finally, global trade would decrease substantially, driven by lower trade in intermediate inputs and a higher reliance of countries on domestic production.

Due to the increasing nature of the knowledge economcy, decision makers require to gain an overview over key future technologies, competitors, business networks or regional economies in order to make better, informed decisions. Thanks to novel data sources and data science methods, new possibilities emerge to depict, analyze and interactively explore regions and industries. This way they can be employed in the process of making funding decisions. In this talk the focus is set on "knowledge mapping", a method that combines relatedness concepts and topic modeling methods to capture the knowledge bases of regions, actors and industries. By the example of two policy consulting projects, we'll show what to consider when data science methods meet the realities of political decision-making.

Prof. Dr. Christian Breuer, Honorarprofessor an der Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften und Senior Economist beim Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (SVR), stellt hier exklusiv das neue Jahresgutachten 2024/25 des SVR vor. Insbesondere wird es um die Frage gehen, wie sich die Konjunktur in Deutschland in nächster Zeit entwickeln wird, welche wirtschaftspolitischen Herausforderungen zu bewältigen sind und welche Lösungswege die Expert*innen vorschlagen.