Results Available From First Representative Longitudinal Study of Perception of Crime and Criminals

Research team of the Center for Criminological Research Saxony e. V. headed by Dr. Deliah Bolesta makes first results on public perception of crimes and criminals available online

The perception of crimes and criminality is not based on facts alone, but is made up of a complex interplay of various factors. These include how offenders are perceived by the population. In Germany, there has been little knowledge of this to date, although this aspect can have an influence on how criminals are dealt with and can offer important starting points for policy and practice in the field of crime prevention.

In order to shed light on this issue, the Center for Criminological Research Saxony e. V. (ZKFS), an affiliated institute of Chemnitz University of Technology, has developed the “Panel zur Wahrnehmung von Kriminalität und Straftäter:innen” (Panel Study on Perception of Crime and Offenders) (PaWaKS). The project is managed by Dr. Deliah Bolesta, research associate at the ZKFS. The PaWaKS team also includes Prof. Dr. Frank Asbrock, director of the ZKFS and holder of the Professorship of Social Psychology at Chemnitz University of Technology, Jennifer Führer, deputy ZKFS director, as well as research associate Rowenia Bender and research associate Dr. Aaron Bielejewski.

First representative longitudinal study - journal publication and follow-up studies in preparation

This is the first representative longitudinal study targeting the public's perception of crime and criminal offenders. The study is divided into four sub-aspects, each of which is part of four survey waves: "Fear of Crime and Crime Development," "Stereotypes about Offenders," "Intergroup Contact with Police, Justice, and Offenders," and "Trust in Police, Justice, and Public Administration". From the results, the researchers hope to draw conclusions about the causes and consequences of crime - both for the general population and for those who have committed crimes.

The first survey took place from the end of March to the beginning of April 2022. Here, the researchers collected a representative sample (N = 5,000) among the adult population in Germany and specifically in Saxony (n = 500). This is because Saxony is one of the ZKFS's main research areas. The first results of this study are now available. They do not represent a causal relationship, but provide insight into the current state of affairs. Currently, the results are being prepared for peer review and publication in academic journals.

The current series of reports is available online and refers to the data of the first survey wave.

Examination of the current state - objective and subjective perceptions of crime differ greatly

"Our data shows that the actual and subjectively perceived crime trends in Germany differ," says Deliah Bolesta. That would actually mean that the objectively declining number of crimes should not be a cause for concern. However, according to the team's data, the reality in society looks different. The researchers found that this was mainly due to certain factors of subjective perception.

High level of trust in police and justice system

A key factor in the perception of crime is the so-called "conspiracy mentality" - and associated with this the conviction that there will be a collapse of social values and norms. However, Deliah Bolesta's team also noted, "It's encouraging that with increasing trust in the justice system and with positive contacts with criminals, you also find a slightly weaker fear of crime." Talking directly to criminals and functioning institutions of the rule of law thus increases trust in the same and reduces the fear of crime.

Crime rate is perceived to be increasing, contrary to statistics

"The results of the first study demonstrate that there is no correlation between actual and subjective perceptions of crime trends," Bolesta says. That is, crime rates are perceived to be increasing (Bolesta & Führer 2022), when in fact they have been steadily decreasing for years. This perception, in turn, was related to a general concern about becoming a victim of crime themselves. This worry or fear, for example, also correlated positively with a conspiracy mentality or individually increased protection and avoidance behavior. This means that people who tend to believe conspiracy narratives have a greater fear of becoming victims of crime.

Furthermore, the results show that trust in the police and justice system in Germany is generally rather high. However, people with a higher fear of crime tend to have less trust in these institutions. Age, education and socioeconomic status, on the other hand, correlate positively with this (Bielejewski, Bender, & Asbrock 2022). That is, the older, more educated and more financially secure the subjects were, the more trust they had in the institutions.

Positive contacts increases trust

In addition, the researchers investigated the respondents' contact experiences with the police, the justice system and offenders. Those who reported contact with the police and the justice system or with offenders described this contact as predominantly positive. Positive contact with the police and justice system was also associated with a positive attitude and higher trust toward these institutions. At the same time, however, there was a slightly negative correlation with attitudes toward offenders.

Positive contact with offenders was related to benevolent attitudes toward them; however, it was not related to derogatory attitudes and trust toward the police and justice system. This finding argues against detrimental side effects of contact with offenders (Bender & Asbrock 2022). In concrete terms, this means that more contact and exchange between the public and criminals increases trust in the rule of law and creates more understanding for the situation of criminals.

"Offender term" evokes false stereotyping

Furthermore, the study showed that the term "offender" evoked certain stereotypes among respondents, but these stereotypes did not match the actual socio-demographic characteristics of offenders. "We were able to identify three different stereotype clusters," says project leader Bolesta. The stereotype that most respondents indicated, but which is in no way supported by police crime statistics, was that of the non-German offender with property and violent crimes.

However, this stereotype of the "delinquent foreigner" by no means represents the actual majority of offenders. "We were therefore primarily interested in what the various stereotypes depend on," says Bolesta. These stereotypes differ from person to person and depend, among other things, on ideological attitudes such as "social dominance orientation" or "authoritarianism," perceived "crime trends," "contact with offenders," or different worldviews such as a belief in a world in constant competition (Bolesta, Oehme, & Führer 2022).

The second survey wave of the panel will start at the end of September 2022: "With our research, we want to enable a fact-based foundation for a societal discussion on how to deal with crime in Saxony and beyond," says Deliah Bolesta.

Publications:

• Bolesta, D., & Führer, J. L. (2022). Kriminalitätsfurcht und wahrgenommene Kriminalitätsentwicklung. In D. Bolesta, J. L. Führer, R. Bender, A. Bielejewski, & F. Asbrock (Hrsg.), Panel zur Wahrnehmung von Kriminalität und Straftäter:innen (PaWaKS): Ergebnisse der ersten Erhebungswelle. Zentrum für kriminologische Forschung Sachsen e.V. Available online at: https://www.zkfs.de/pawaks.
• Bolesta, D., Oehme, A., & Führer, J. L. (2022). Stereotype über Straftäter:innen. In D. Bolesta, J. L. Führer, R. Bender, A. Bielejewski, & F. Asbrock (Hrsg.), Panel zur Wahrnehmung von Kriminalität und Straftäter:innen (PaWaKS): Ergebnisse der ersten Erhebungswelle. Zentrum für kriminologische Forschung Sachsen e.V. Available online at: https://www.zkfs.de/pawaks.
• Bender, R., & Asbrock, F. (2022). Intergruppenkontakt mit Polizei, Justiz und Straftäter:innen. In D. Bolesta, J. L. Führer, R. Bender, A. Bielejewski, & F. Asbrock (Hrsg.), Panelstudie zur Wahrnehmung von Kriminalität und Straftäter:innen (PaWaKS): Ergebnisse der ersten Erhebungswelle. Zentrum für kriminologische Forschung Sachsen e.V. Available online at: https://www.zkfs.de/pawaks.
• Bielejewski, A., Bender, R., & Asbrock, F. (2022). Vertrauen in Polizei, Justiz und öffentliche Verwaltung. In D. Bolesta, J. L. Führer, R. Bender, A. Bielejewski, & F. Asbrock (Hrsg.), Panelstudie zur Wahrnehmung von Kriminalität und Straftäter:innen (PaWaKS): Ergebnisse der ersten Erhebungswelle. Zentrum für kriminologische Forschung Sachsen e.V. Available online at: https://www.zkfs.de/pawaks.

For further information, please contact Dr. Deliah Bolesta, Research Associate at the Center for Criminological Research Saxony e. V., tel. +49 371 335638-31, e-mail deliah.bolesta@zkfs.de.

Background: ZKFS

The Center for Criminological Research Saxony (ZKFS) has been an affiliated institute of Chemnitz University of Technology since December 2021, making it the first social science institution to receive this status. The ZKFS conducts fundamental and practice-oriented criminological research with a social science focus. For this purpose, it is essential to continuously collect data on crime trends and the perception of crime among the general population and in public discourse.

(Translation: Brent Benofsky)

Matthias Fejes
18.08.2022

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